Work from stock reconciliation to reorder, pause and exit rules
Prerequisites, sequence and stop points
- Fix the selling window, channel, eligible SKUs, promotion mechanic, fulfilment capacity and purchase deadline. (not complete)
- Reconcile usable, reserved, damaged and return-risk stock plus confirmed open orders on one snapshot date. (not complete)
- Separate comparable baseline demand from low, base and high campaign assumptions; do not use “last year plus X%” as a method. (not complete)
- Record pack or MOQ, cut-off, lead-time range, delivery and payment dates, landed-cost basis, storage and reorder feasibility. (not complete)
- Use Supplier Pack Order to round a user-entered demand scenario to whole supplier packs, then keep extra units, cash commitment, storage exposure and minimum-order warnings visible. (not complete)
- Test buying budget, inventory payment/collection dates and total weekly cash in their exact tools. (not complete)
- Write sell-through review, last reorder, pause and exit checkpoints before ordering. (not complete)
Compare one commitment with a staged purchase
| Checkpoint | Commit now | Stage purchase | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Order and deposit | 150 units at 12 CU/unit: 900 CU on 2 August and 900 CU on dispatch 9 August | 100 units: 600 CU on 2 August and 600 CU on dispatch 9 August; optional 50: 300 CU on 16 August and 300 CU on dispatch 23 August | Fictional 50% on-order/50% on-dispatch user terms; not a provider preset |
| Arrival and campaign dates | 150-unit order assumes arrival 23 August before the 24 August–20 September campaign | 100-unit order assumes arrival 23 August; optional 50 assumes 6 September arrival after a 16 August reorder cut-off | Both use an illustrative 21-day lead-time assumption, not a guarantee |
| Low/base/high ending units | Opening usable 120 + confirmed open order 20 + purchase 150 − demand 140/180/220 = 150/110/70 units | Initial 100 only gives 100/60/20 ending units; exercising optional 50 gives 150/110/70 | Demand totals combine baseline 80 with campaign assumptions 60/100/140; they are not forecasts |
| Cash committed and decision boundary | 1,800 CU committed across 2 and 9 August | 1,200 CU initially; optional 600 CU only after the 16 August review | Staging may reduce initial exposure but can lose availability or terms; no automatic winner |
Map the commitment through the campaign timeline
Labelled scenario
Use neutral units, packs, calendar dates and CU. The example records assumptions and trade-offs rather than calculating an optimal order.
Ordered fictional campaign timeline:
- 1 August — reconcile 120 usable units and the confirmed 20-unit open order.
- 2 August — place the initial order and record the first dated commitment.
- 9 August — record dispatch and the second dated commitment.
- 16 August — review remaining stock, campaign evidence and cash boundary before the optional 50-unit tranche.
- 23 August — record the first arrival and any optional-tranche dispatch.
- 24 August — campaign starts.
- 6 September — record the optional arrival if the tranche was exercised.
- 20 September — campaign ends; record ending stock, pause and exit actions.
| Case or record | Inputs and arithmetic | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Timeline | 1 August snapshot → 2 August order/deposit → 9 August dispatch → 16 August optional-order cut-off → 23 August first arrival → 24 August campaign start → 6 September optional arrival → 20 September campaign end and exit review | All dates are fictional user-scenario assumptions; payment and cash effects remain tool-owned |
| Demand cases | Baseline 80 units plus campaign increment 60/100/140 = low/base/high total demand of 140/180/220 units | Historical sales are evidence, not a forecast; no sell-through probability is assigned |
| Decision record | Choose whether the optional 50-unit tranche remains available at the 16 August checkpoint; record pause and ending-stock exit actions for the 20 September review | Completion is a signed purchase record, not an optimal-order calculation |
| Checkpoint | Remaining-stock and cash boundary | Owner | Evidence to retain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 August optional-order review | Reconcile remaining stock against low/base/high demand and confirm whether the additional 600 CU commitment stays inside the user-set cash boundary | Named purchasing owner and cash reviewer | Dated stock count, sales record, supplier availability and cash-tool scenario version |
| 20 September exit review | Record actual ending stock and the user-defined exit or pause action without treating assumed 70/110/150 units as a forecast | Named campaign and inventory owner | Dated ending-stock count, receipts, commitments and approved disposition record |
Route each arithmetic question to its owner
Use the calculation owner for the next step
- Open-to-buy Planner
Set a buying budget from planned sales, markdowns and stock targets
- Inventory Funding Gap Planner
Identify the peak cash funding gap between inventory payments and customer collections
- Reorder Point Planner
Set an inventory reorder point from demand and lead-time risk
- Supplier Pack & Order Quantity Planner
Choose an order quantity after pack sizes, demand, storage and cash limits
- Promotion Calendar Profit Planner
Compare cumulative promotion contribution across periods
- 13-Week Cash Flow Forecast
Forecast weekly closing cash, the first shortfall and the funding gap across a 13-week operating horizon
Questions and limitations
- Should last year determine this year’s order?
- No. Use it as evidence after recording assortment, availability, price, channel and campaign differences.
- Should all campaign stock be ordered at once?
- There is no default. Compare commitment, availability, supplier constraints and downside cash symmetrically.
Sources and scope
- Write your business plan — U.S. Small Business Administration: Stable planning and review context only.
- Marketing and sales planning — U.S. Small Business Administration: Planning context only; no demand forecast or finance programme claim.