Prepare one consistent 13-week basis
Record-to-review sequence
- Name the decision, Week 1 cut-off, 13-week horizon, currency and indirect-tax treatment. (not complete)
- Reconcile available opening cash to bank and ledger records; exclude unavailable balances. (not complete)
- Map each receipt to its realistic bank date and label its evidence state or confidence assumption. (not complete)
- Map payroll, suppliers, tax, debt and other payments separately; do not hide timing by netting. (not complete)
- Add funding only as an explicit scenario action, never as an assumed rescue. (not complete)
- Roll all 13 weeks and record first negative week, first buffer breach and peak gap. (not complete)
- Compare the baseline, a downside receipt date and one available action without silently changing other inputs. (not complete)
- Reconcile forecast to actual, explain variance, roll the horizon and assign an action owner and review date. (not complete)
| Record or evidence | Forecast input | Checkpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Bank and ledger reconciliation | Opening available cash | Same cut-off date; unavailable cash excluded |
| Invoice, order, contract and current correspondence | Receipt amount, week and confidence | Expected bank date is explicit; uncertain receipts remain visible |
| Payroll calendar, supplier bills, tax and debt schedules | Payment amount and week | Each obligation appears once on a realistic date |
| Approved facility or documented commercial action | Funding or timing action | Availability, cost and authority checked outside the forecast |
Read the engine-derived default scenario
Selected weeks from the public 13-week fixture
The fixture starts with 65,000 currency units, uses a 25,000-unit buffer and moves a 2,000-unit receipt from Week 3 to Week 5. All displayed outputs below are generated by the same forecast engine as the tool.
| Week | Opening cash | Expected receipts | Payments | Closing cash | Buffer gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 65,000 | 11,400 | 9,200 | 67,200 | 0 |
| Week 3 | 55,400 | 9,400 | 9,200 | 55,600 | 0 |
| Week 5 | 57,100 | 11,600 | 9,200 | 59,500 | 0 |
| Week 7 | 45,900 | 9,600 | 27,200 | 28,300 | 0 |
| Week 13 | 10,700 | 9,600 | 9,200 | 11,100 | 13,900 |
| Checkpoint | Compare | Record the outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Opening cash | Prior closing forecast versus reconciled bank cash | Variance and reconciliation owner |
| Receipts | Expected date and confidence versus bank receipt date | Timing or amount variance; revised evidence state |
| Payments | Forecast amount/date versus settled amount/date | Cause, recurrence and next-week effect |
| Horizon roll | Remove completed week and add a new Week 13 | Updated first breach, peak gap and action owner |
Route the finding without duplicating the calculator
| Finding | Next workflow | Boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Exact weekly dates create the gap | 13-Week Cash-Flow Forecast | Calculates the scenario; does not predict payment |
| Receivables, inventory or payables consume cash | Working Capital Planner | Balance-date scenario, not a weekly schedule |
| Collection-day assumptions drive receivables | Receivables Collection Impact Planner | Aggregate scenario, not invoice-level collection advice |
13-week forecast questions
- Is receipt confidence a probability forecast?
- No. It is a user-controlled scenario label or weighting. Preserve the underlying evidence and also run a clear downside date rather than presenting the percentage as predictive certainty.
- Should several assumptions change at once?
- Start with one change against the reconciled baseline so its effect remains visible. Add combined scenarios only after retaining each intermediate result.
- When should the forecast be refreshed?
- Refresh it when actual cash, receipt evidence, payment dates or an approved action changes, and at the chosen rolling-review cadence. Do not invent a future receipt merely to remove a gap.
Methods and supporting context
- Margin101 13-Week Cash-Flow Forecast methodology — Margin101: Exact engine, default fixture, units, timing actions and limitations.
- Set up a cash flow statement — business.gov.au: Opening and closing cash, estimated values and consistent basis context.
- Manage your finances — U.S. Small Business Administration: Bookkeeping, reconciliation and cash-projection context.