Define the decision before calculating
Record these inputs and boundaries
- Reconcile bank cash to the forecast opening balance. (not complete)
- List receipts by expected date and confidence, not invoice date alone. (not complete)
- List payroll, suppliers, tax and other outflows by due date. (not complete)
- Separate overdue, disputed and not-yet-due receivables. (not complete)
- Label discretionary outflows and the approval needed to change timing. (not complete)
Compare a labelled base and downside scenario
| Decision input | Base case | Downside or boundary case | Decision checkpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening cash | Reconciled bank balance | Unreconciled estimate | Stop until the starting point is reliable |
| Customer receipts | Dated from collection evidence | All invoices assumed on time | Test a realistic delay case |
| Pricing issue | Unit contribution is adequate | Current price does not recover the chosen cost boundary | Use pricing only in the second case, after timing triage |
- Find the first dated negative or minimum-cash breach.
- Trace the receipts and payments that create it.
- Test collection, payment, inventory and discretionary-outflow timing separately.
- Check whether unit contribution or total volume also creates a structural gap.
- Choose the action that addresses the evidenced cause and record a review date trigger.
Interpret the result and choose the next step
A cash shortfall can come from timing, margin, volume or a combination. Diagnose the first dated gap before choosing a pricing response.
Run the exact calculation in the registered planner
- 13-Week Cash Flow Forecast
Forecast weekly closing cash, the first shortfall and the funding gap across a 13-week operating horizon
Decision questions
- Will raising prices fix a cash shortfall?
- Not necessarily. A future price change may not affect the first shortfall and may introduce volume or collection assumptions. Diagnose timing and margin separately.
- Should overdue invoices be counted as immediate cash?
- No. Use collection evidence and a dated scenario. An amount owed is not the same as cash received.
Method and source scope
- 13-Week Cash-Flow Forecast methodology — Margin101: Product-owned calculation, units, assumptions and limitation contract used by this guide.