Compare a reversible buffer with an irreversible growth commitment
| Measure | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Accessible cash | User-declared available amount | 80,000 CU |
| Scenario target | 45,000 downside need + 20,000 chosen floor | 65,000 CU |
| Headroom | 80,000 − 65,000 | 15,000 CU |
| Growth commitment | User-entered irreversible commitment | 30,000 CU |
| Excess over headroom | 30,000 − 15,000 | 15,000 CU |
Keep timing, reversibility, evidence and stop conditions visible instead of collapsing unlike risks into a score. If the 30,000 CU commitment cannot be staged or reversed, the record remains unresolved until a feasible dated response addresses the 15,000 CU excess.
Use the record before the commitment becomes irreversible
Complete one record for one expansion decision and one version date. It is designed for printing and no-JavaScript use: attach evidence, assign the next action and preserve unresolved states. The record documents the decision process; it does not collapse unlike risks into a score.
Complete the expansion evidence record in sequence
Prerequisites, sequence and checkpoints
- Name the expansion decision, owner, version, decision date and reversible commitment deadline. (not complete)
- Document demand evidence and distinguish observed facts from assumptions. (not complete)
- Reconcile incremental contribution, fixed commitments, working capital and dated cash. (not complete)
- Confirm capacity, people, systems, suppliers and operational dependencies. (not complete)
- Mark each item supported, amber or unresolved and record a stop condition and evidence owner. (not complete)
Use evidence states instead of a composite score
| Decision area | Evidence to attach | Stop condition |
|---|---|---|
| Demand and contribution | Observed demand plus user-scenario unit economics | Case depends only on unsupported growth |
| Cash and working capital | Dated downside forecast and chosen floor | First breach has no feasible action |
| Capacity and people | Named productive capacity and lawful staffing plan | Critical role or capacity assumption unresolved |
| Operations | Premises, supplier, system and service dependencies | Irreversible commitment precedes evidence |
Printable expansion decision record
| Decision and version | Decision owner | Review date | Irreversible commitment deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| ________________ v____ | ________________ | ____ / ____ / ____ | ____ / ____ / ____ |
| Decision area | Evidence state | Evidence reference / assumption | Evidence owner | Review / version date | Action deadline | Stop condition | Completion outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | supported / amber / unresolved | ________________ | ________ | ________ | ________ | ________________ | complete / open |
| Contribution | supported / amber / unresolved | ________________ | ________ | ________ | ________ | ________________ | complete / open |
| Cash and working capital | supported / amber / unresolved | ________________ | ________ | ________ | ________ | ________________ | complete / open |
| Capacity and people | supported / amber / unresolved | ________________ | ________ | ________ | ________ | ________________ | complete / open |
| Operations and dependencies | supported / amber / unresolved | ________________ | ________ | ________ | ________ | ________________ | complete / open |
| Record status | Outcome and reason | Owner | Completed / next review date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Complete | All critical evidence resolved; record chosen action and limitations | ________ | ________ |
| Unresolved | Name open evidence, next action and stop condition; do not erase the state | ________ | ________ |
| Stopped | Record the triggered stop condition and avoided commitment | ________ | ________ |
Record a fictional expansion review
Reproducible user scenario
Fictional tax-excluded CU scenario dated 22 July 2026; labels are not points or advice.
| Step | Input or arithmetic | Decision meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial | Observed pilot evidence attached; contribution scenario 24,000 CU/year | Supported assumption, still sensitivity-test |
| Cash | Downside forecast breaches chosen floor by 18,000 CU on 15 October | Unresolved until a dated feasible response exists |
| Decision record | Lease deadline 1 September; evidence owner and stop condition named | Do not cross the irreversible deadline while unresolved |
Close the fictional record honestly
The fictional pilot evidence supports a commercial assumption, but the downside forecast still shows an 18,000 CU breach on 15 October. The record therefore remains unresolved. Its named owner must either attach a feasible dated response before the 1 September lease deadline or record that the commitment stopped. A positive contribution scenario cannot overwrite that cash state.
Final print review
- Every critical row has an evidence state and reference (not complete)
- Every unresolved row has an owner, deadline and stop condition (not complete)
- The decision closeout says complete, unresolved or stopped (not complete)
- The version and review date identify the exact record used (not complete)
- No weighted total or automatic go/no-go label has been added (not complete)
Limitations, evidence and next action
Use the calculation owner for the next step
- Location Expansion Scenario Planner
Test the incremental economics and payback of an additional location
- 13-Week Cash Flow Forecast
Forecast weekly closing cash, the first shortfall and the funding gap across a 13-week operating horizon
- Working Capital Planner
Test cash released or consumed by balance changes
Questions and boundaries
- What score means expand?
- None. The checklist records evidence states and stop conditions; it does not issue an authoritative score.
- Does a green commercial case override a cash shortfall?
- No. Each critical constraint remains visible and must be resolved on its own evidence.
Sources and scope
- Grow your business — U.S. Small Business Administration: General growth-planning context only; examples are not demand or viability forecasts.