Act on the result
Compare payback with cash capacity and the break-even demand required at the new site.
Educational only: Business decision support, not accounting, tax or legal advice.
Privacy: No account is required. Tool inputs and results stay in this browser. Anonymous categorical usage analytics send only governed page, tool, cluster and action identifiers; tool inputs and results are never sent. Error monitoring is disabled. Optional saved state stays only on this device.
Update policy: Reviewed when formulas or official dependencies change.
Scope: Market-neutral small-business planning using your own assumptions.
What this planner helps you decide
Best for
Operators testing the incremental viability of an additional location.
Outputs
Incremental contribution, fixed-cost coverage, upfront investment, payback and break-even.
Start here
Enter only new-location revenue, costs, investment and capacity without borrowing performance from the existing location.
Use a different tool when: Do not use this to test one location break-even threshold; use Location Break-even Planner for that decision. Use this tool to test the incremental economics and payback of an additional location.
Profit & break-even
Location Expansion Scenario: incremental contribution
Incremental contribution, fixed-cost coverage, upfront investment, payback and break-even.
Amounts use the same currency as your inputs. No currency conversion is performed.
Location Expansion Scenario
Stress-test a proposed location using capacity, demand realisation, cannibalisation, monthly contribution and setup-cost payback.
Your numbers stay in this browser
Enter one-off incremental setup expenditure. Use one consistent ex-tax currency basis.
Enter new fixed cost for one month. Use one consistent ex-tax currency basis.
Enter whole units the proposed location can serve each month.
Enter a whole-unit demand scenario before applying risk realisation.
Enter revenue less avoidable cost per additional unit. Use one consistent ex-tax currency basis.
Enter whole units expected to move from an existing location.
Enter the share of the demand scenario expected to materialise.
Decision result
Review the operating threshold and incremental comparison on the same entered capacity, cost and demand basis.
- Risk-adjusted new units
- 120 units
- Displaced existing units
- 20 units
- Monthly incremental contribution
- 1,000.00
- Setup-cost payback
- 10 months
- Risk-adjusted capacity utilisation
- 60%
Scenario comparison
Each row names the assumption axis changed from the baseline.
ScenarioResultDifference
Entered scenario1,000.00Baseline
Lower Demand realisation760.00-240.00
Higher Demand realisation1,240.00240.00
Save these results, change an input, then compare the updated figures with this baseline.
The baseline is temporary in this tab and is not added to shared scenario links or generated reports.
Calculation details
View calculation detailsView the formulas and inputs used for these results.
Risk-adjusted new units
Risk-adjusted new units
min(monthly capacity, expected monthly demand × demand realisation rate)120 units/monthResult120 units
Uses the exact shared engine result and only the entered market-neutral operating assumptions. The engine retains raw precision; display formatting does not feed calculation.
Location Expansion Scenario Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Risk-adjusted new unitsSetup Cost
- 10,000
- Risk-adjusted new unitsMonthly Fixed Cost
- 1,000
- Risk-adjusted new unitsMonthly Capacity Units
- 200
- Risk-adjusted new unitsExpected Monthly Demand Units
- 150
- Risk-adjusted new unitsContribution Per Unit
- 20
- Risk-adjusted new unitsCannibalised Existing Units
- 20
- Risk-adjusted new unitsRisk Realisation Rate
- 0.8
Displaced existing units
Displaced existing units
min(risk-adjusted new units, cannibalised existing units)20 units/monthResult20 units
Uses the exact shared engine result and only the entered market-neutral operating assumptions. The engine retains raw precision; display formatting does not feed calculation.
Location Expansion Scenario Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Displaced existing unitsSetup Cost
- 10,000
- Displaced existing unitsMonthly Fixed Cost
- 1,000
- Displaced existing unitsMonthly Capacity Units
- 200
- Displaced existing unitsExpected Monthly Demand Units
- 150
- Displaced existing unitsContribution Per Unit
- 20
- Displaced existing unitsCannibalised Existing Units
- 20
- Displaced existing unitsRisk Realisation Rate
- 0.8
Monthly incremental contribution
Monthly incremental contribution
(risk-adjusted new units − displaced units) × contribution per unit − monthly fixed cost1,000/month, ex taxResult1,000.00
Uses the exact shared engine result and only the entered market-neutral operating assumptions. The engine retains raw precision; display formatting does not feed calculation.
Location Expansion Scenario Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Monthly incremental contributionSetup Cost
- 10,000
- Monthly incremental contributionMonthly Fixed Cost
- 1,000
- Monthly incremental contributionMonthly Capacity Units
- 200
- Monthly incremental contributionExpected Monthly Demand Units
- 150
- Monthly incremental contributionContribution Per Unit
- 20
- Monthly incremental contributionCannibalised Existing Units
- 20
- Monthly incremental contributionRisk Realisation Rate
- 0.8
Setup-cost payback
Setup-cost payback
setup cost / positive monthly incremental contribution10 monthsResult10 months
Uses the exact shared engine result and only the entered market-neutral operating assumptions. The engine retains raw precision; display formatting does not feed calculation.
Location Expansion Scenario Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Setup-cost paybackSetup Cost
- 10,000
- Setup-cost paybackMonthly Fixed Cost
- 1,000
- Setup-cost paybackMonthly Capacity Units
- 200
- Setup-cost paybackExpected Monthly Demand Units
- 150
- Setup-cost paybackContribution Per Unit
- 20
- Setup-cost paybackCannibalised Existing Units
- 20
- Setup-cost paybackRisk Realisation Rate
- 0.8
Risk-adjusted capacity utilisation
Risk-adjusted capacity utilisation
risk-adjusted new units / monthly capacity0.6 percentResult60%
Uses the exact shared engine result and only the entered market-neutral operating assumptions. The engine retains raw precision; display formatting does not feed calculation.
Location Expansion Scenario Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Risk-adjusted capacity utilisationSetup Cost
- 10,000
- Risk-adjusted capacity utilisationMonthly Fixed Cost
- 1,000
- Risk-adjusted capacity utilisationMonthly Capacity Units
- 200
- Risk-adjusted capacity utilisationExpected Monthly Demand Units
- 150
- Risk-adjusted capacity utilisationContribution Per Unit
- 20
- Risk-adjusted capacity utilisationCannibalised Existing Units
- 20
- Risk-adjusted capacity utilisationRisk Realisation Rate
- 0.8
Inputs used
- Setup cost
- 10,000
- Monthly fixed cost
- 1,000
- Monthly capacity
- 200
- Expected monthly demand
- 150
- Contribution per unit
- 20
- Cannibalised existing units
- 20
- Demand realisation
- 0.8
Open this calculator with preset values
This calculator supports documented, shareable scenario URLs. Compatible assistants and applications can construct links using the parameters below.
Scenario links contain only allowlisted numeric and closed-choice inputs shown in the URL; Margin101 excludes free text and identifying fields. Anyone you share the URL with can read those numbers, so do not include private or identifying data.
| Parameter | Meaning | Unit | Allowed values | Presence | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cannibalisedExistingUnits | Enter whole units expected to move from an existing location. | units/month | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 20 |
| contributionPerUnit | Enter revenue less avoidable cost per additional unit. Use one consistent ex-tax currency basis. | currency units/unit, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 20 |
| expectedMonthlyDemandUnits | Enter a whole-unit demand scenario before applying risk realisation. | units/month | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 150 |
| monthlyCapacityUnits | Enter whole units the proposed location can serve each month. | units/month | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 200 |
| monthlyFixedCost | Enter new fixed cost for one month. Use one consistent ex-tax currency basis. | currency units/month, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 1000 |
| riskRealisationRate | Enter the share of the demand scenario expected to materialise. | decimal fraction of expected monthly demand (1 = 100%) | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.8 |
| setupCost | Enter one-off incremental setup expenditure. Use one consistent ex-tax currency basis. | currency units/one-off location setup, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 10000 |
Location Expansion Scenario: incremental contribution
Treat the new location as an incremental scenario; existing-location revenue is not automatically transferable.
Formula summary
- Primary formula
- (risk-adjusted new units − displaced units) × contribution per unit − monthly fixed cost.
Data used here
- The estimate uses your inputs and the general business formula documented in the methodology.
Decision checks
Stress-test the decision
Retest slower ramp-up, higher fixed cost and cannibalisation.
When this estimate can be misleading
- Volumes, rates, capacity, time, costs and contribution are your records or scenarios; no benchmark or demand forecast is embedded.
- Keep all money and operating records on one consistent ex-tax basis and decision period.
- Incremental comparisons exclude disclosed sunk cost and do not guarantee demand, delivery capacity or a commercial outcome.
- This is educational business decision support, not accounting, tax, legal or financial advice.
- Treat the new location as an incremental scenario; existing-location revenue is not automatically transferable.
Educational estimate, not advice. See all assumptions & limitations →
Related reading
Guides to interpret the decision and its assumptions.
- A Small-Business Expansion Decision Scorecard
Record demand, contribution, dated cash, capacity, people, operations and explicit stop conditions without an authoritative score.
Read guide - Second Store or More Sales From the First?
Compare expansion with improving the current location using contribution, capacity, cash and downside evidence.
Read guide
Frequently asked questions
How do I test the incremental economics and payback of an additional location?
Compare payback with cash capacity and the break-even demand required at the new site.
Which planning assumptions should I stress-test?
Compare a plausible alternative scenario and verify the decision-critical assumption that changes the plan most.