Subscription Box Unit Economics methodology

totalBoxesShipped = sum(active subscribers * (1 - failed payment rate))

totalNetPaidBoxes = sum(boxes shipped * (1 - refund rate))

totalRevenueExTax = sum(net paid boxes * box price)

totalVariableCostExTax = contents + fulfilment + shipping + payment cost across shipped boxes

acquisitionCostExTax = new subscribers per cycle * cycles * acquisition cost

totalContributionExTax = revenue - variable box cost - acquisition cost

contributionPerBoxExTax = expected paid revenue per box - product, fulfilment, shipping and payment cost

monthlyContributionExTax = contribution per box * opening subscribers

expectedLifetimeBoxes = 1 / churn rate

contributionLtvExTax = contribution per box * expected lifetime boxes

acquisitionPaybackCycles = acquisition cost / positive contribution per box

netContributionLtvExTax = contribution lifetime value - acquisition cost

contributionMargin = contribution / revenue

endingSubscribers = active subscribers after cycle-by-cycle churn

Money inputs and outputs use the currency selected in the scenario without changing the canonical methodology. Rates, margins, utilisation and buffers are entered as percentages and converted to decimal values for calculation.

• All inputs must be finite and inside the visible validation boundaries.
• Rates are retained as decimal values and shown as percentages only at the presentation boundary.
• The worked fixture must expose every declared result: totalBoxesShipped, totalNetPaidBoxes, totalRevenueExTax, totalVariableCostExTax, acquisitionCostExTax, totalContributionExTax, contributionPerBoxExTax, monthlyContributionExTax, expectedLifetimeBoxes, contributionLtvExTax, acquisitionPaybackCycles, netContributionLtvExTax, contributionMargin, endingSubscribers.
• Scenario comparison changes one declared driver while holding the remaining industry records constant.

Opening subscribers minimum

openingSubscribers ≥ 0 whole active subscribers before first billing cycle — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Opening subscribers maximum

openingSubscribers ≤ 100,000,000 whole active subscribers before first billing cycle — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

New subscribers per cycle minimum

newSubscribersPerCycle ≥ 0 whole new subscribers/billing cycle — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

New subscribers per cycle maximum

newSubscribersPerCycle ≤ 100,000,000 whole new subscribers/billing cycle — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

Billing cycles projected minimum

billingCycles ≥ 0 whole billing cycles/projection — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Billing cycles projected maximum

billingCycles ≤ 120 whole billing cycles/projection — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

Subscription box price minimum

boxPriceExTax ≥ 0 currency units/net paid box, ex tax — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Subscription box price maximum

boxPriceExTax ≤ 10,000,000 currency units/net paid box, ex tax — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

Product cost per box minimum

productCostPerBoxExTax ≥ 0 currency units/shipped box, ex tax — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Product cost per box maximum

productCostPerBoxExTax ≤ 10,000,000 currency units/shipped box, ex tax — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

Packaging and fulfilment per box minimum

packagingFulfilmentPerBoxExTax ≥ 0 currency units/shipped box, ex tax — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Packaging and fulfilment per box maximum

packagingFulfilmentPerBoxExTax ≤ 10,000,000 currency units/shipped box, ex tax — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

Shipping cost per box minimum

shippingPerBoxExTax ≥ 0 currency units/shipped box, ex tax — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Shipping cost per box maximum

shippingPerBoxExTax ≤ 10,000,000 currency units/shipped box, ex tax — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

Payment fee rate minimum

paymentFeeRate ≥ 0 decimal fraction of box revenue — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Payment fee rate maximum

paymentFeeRate ≤ 1 decimal fraction of box revenue — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

Fixed payment fee per box minimum

paymentFeeFixedExTax ≥ 0 currency units/shipped box, ex tax — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Fixed payment fee per box maximum

paymentFeeFixedExTax ≤ 10,000,000 currency units/shipped box, ex tax — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

Failed payment rate minimum

failedPaymentRate ≥ 0 decimal fraction of active subscribers failing payment per cycle — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Failed payment rate maximum

failedPaymentRate ≤ 1 decimal fraction of active subscribers failing payment per cycle — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

Refund rate minimum

refundRate ≥ 0 decimal fraction of shipped boxes refunded — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Refund rate maximum

refundRate ≤ 1 decimal fraction of shipped boxes refunded — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

Subscriber churn per cycle minimum

churnRate ≥ 0 decimal fraction of active subscribers lost per billing cycle — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Subscriber churn per cycle maximum

churnRate ≤ 1 decimal fraction of active subscribers lost per billing cycle — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

Acquisition cost per new subscriber minimum

acquisitionCostPerNewSubscriberExTax ≥ 0 currency units/new subscriber, ex tax — A lower value is rejected before calculation.

Acquisition cost per new subscriber maximum

acquisitionCostPerNewSubscriberExTax ≤ 10,000,000 currency units/new subscriber, ex tax — A higher value is rejected before calculation.

• Costs, capacity, contract terms, tax rates and targets are supplied by the user.
• No provider default, jurisdictional rule or industry benchmark is embedded.
• The shared engine retains full precision and display formatting never feeds calculation.

This planner has no current policy-data dependency. Its commercial assumptions are user supplied. Registered family-level regression suites exercise the shared business-logic engine and worked-result reconciliation.

• Results are only as reliable as the timing, scope and basis of the entered records.
• The workflow does not predict demand or establish accounting, tax, contractual or legal treatment.

This is educational decision support, not tax, accounting, legal or financial advice. Check the treatment of your actual transactions under the rules that apply to your business and seek qualified advice where appropriate.

Registered family-level suites test formula invariants and example reconciliation; the release ledger records that coverage without claiming a separate oracle for every line of public copy. There is no official threshold or benchmark to refresh for this planner. Commercial inputs remain user-supplied because they vary by business and contract.

1. 2026-07-31: Initial public release of the planner and methodology after pre-launch calculation, content, source and interaction review.