Act on the result
Identify the largest controllable fulfilment or product-cost driver before scaling acquisition.
Educational only: Business decision support, not accounting, tax or legal advice.
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Update policy: Reviewed when formulas or official dependencies change.
Scope: Market-neutral small-business planning using your own assumptions.
What this planner helps you decide
Best for
Subscription-box operators reconciling box contribution with fulfilment and acquisition burden.
Outputs
Box contribution, contribution margin, churn-adjusted value and acquisition recovery.
Start here
Enter customer price and the complete product, packing, shipping and service cost per box.
Use a different tool when: Do not use this to keep logo and revenue churn separate while estimating annual contribution and replacement acquisition impact; use Subscription Churn Impact Planner for that decision. Use this tool to test box contribution after product, fulfilment, shipping, churn and acquisition burden.
Commerce & operations
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics: box contribution
Box contribution, contribution margin, churn-adjusted value and acquisition recovery.
Amounts use the same currency as your inputs. No currency conversion is performed.
Your industry scenario
Project subscription-box contribution across billing cycles with subscriber additions, churn, failed payments, refunds, fulfilment, shipping, payment and acquisition cost.
Your numbers stay in this browser
Whole active subscribers before the first billing cycle.
Whole new subscribers added at the start of each cycle.
Whole recurring billing cycles in the projection.
Entered price charged for each net paid box. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis.
Contents cost for every box shipped. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis.
Packaging and fulfilment cost for every box shipped. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis.
Delivery cost for every box shipped. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis.
Revenue-linked payment processing rate.
Fixed processing fee for every box shipped. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis.
Share of active subscribers not shipped because payment fails.
Share of shipped boxes whose price is refunded.
Share of active subscribers lost after each cycle.
Entered acquisition spend per new subscriber added. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis.
Industry decision result
Test whether recurring box economics remain viable after cohort movement and the full entered cost-to-serve stack. Review every output on the same entered business basis.
- Boxes shipped
- 582.17
- Net paid boxes
- 553.06
- Subscription revenue
- 27,653.09
- Variable box cost
- 15,427.51
- Subscriber acquisition cost
- 1,200.00
- Subscription-box contribution
- 11,025.58
- Contribution per box
- 21.00
- Opening cohort contribution
- 2,100.00
- Expected lifetime boxes
- 10
- Contribution lifetime value
- 210.00
- Acquisition payback cycles
- 0.95
- Net contribution lifetime value
- 190.00
- Subscription-box margin
- 39.9%
- Ending subscribers
- 95.31
Scenario comparison
Each row names the assumption axis changed from the baseline.
ScenarioResultDifference
Current industry scenario11,025.58Baseline
Lower Subscriber churn per cycle11,299.17273.59
Higher Subscriber churn per cycle10,759.08-266.50
Save these results, change an input, then compare the updated figures with this baseline.
The baseline is temporary in this tab and is not added to shared scenario links or generated reports.
Calculation details
View calculation detailsView the formulas and inputs used for these results.
Boxes shipped
Boxes shipped
sum(active subscribers * (1 - failed payment rate))582.17 unitsResult582.17
Uses the named industry records and reports this output in units. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Boxes shippedOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Boxes shippedNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Boxes shippedBilling Cycles
- 6
- Boxes shippedBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Boxes shippedProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Boxes shippedPackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Boxes shippedShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Boxes shippedPayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Boxes shippedPayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Boxes shippedFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Boxes shippedRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Boxes shippedChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Boxes shippedAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Net paid boxes
Net paid boxes
sum(boxes shipped * (1 - refund rate))553.06 unitsResult553.06
Uses the named industry records and reports this output in units. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Net paid boxesOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Net paid boxesNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Net paid boxesBilling Cycles
- 6
- Net paid boxesBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Net paid boxesProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Net paid boxesPackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Net paid boxesShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Net paid boxesPayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Net paid boxesPayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Net paid boxesFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Net paid boxesRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Net paid boxesChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Net paid boxesAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Subscription revenue
Subscription revenue
sum(net paid boxes * box price)27,653.09 , ex taxResult27,653.09
Uses the named industry records and reports this output, ex tax. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Subscription revenueOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Subscription revenueNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Subscription revenueBilling Cycles
- 6
- Subscription revenueBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Subscription revenueProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Subscription revenuePackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Subscription revenueShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Subscription revenuePayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Subscription revenuePayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Subscription revenueFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Subscription revenueRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Subscription revenueChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Subscription revenueAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Variable box cost
Variable box cost
contents + fulfilment + shipping + payment cost across shipped boxes15,427.51 , ex taxResult15,427.51
Uses the named industry records and reports this output, ex tax. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Variable box costOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Variable box costNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Variable box costBilling Cycles
- 6
- Variable box costBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Variable box costProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Variable box costPackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Variable box costShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Variable box costPayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Variable box costPayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Variable box costFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Variable box costRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Variable box costChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Variable box costAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Subscriber acquisition cost
Subscriber acquisition cost
new subscribers per cycle * cycles * acquisition cost1,200 , ex taxResult1,200.00
Uses the named industry records and reports this output, ex tax. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Subscriber acquisition costOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Subscriber acquisition costNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Subscriber acquisition costBilling Cycles
- 6
- Subscriber acquisition costBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Subscriber acquisition costProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Subscriber acquisition costPackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Subscriber acquisition costShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Subscriber acquisition costPayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Subscriber acquisition costPayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Subscriber acquisition costFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Subscriber acquisition costRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Subscriber acquisition costChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Subscriber acquisition costAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Subscription-box contribution
Subscription-box contribution
revenue - variable box cost - acquisition cost11,025.58 , ex taxResult11,025.58
Uses the named industry records and reports this output, ex tax. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Subscription-box contributionOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Subscription-box contributionNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Subscription-box contributionBilling Cycles
- 6
- Subscription-box contributionBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Subscription-box contributionProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Subscription-box contributionPackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Subscription-box contributionShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Subscription-box contributionPayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Subscription-box contributionPayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Subscription-box contributionFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Subscription-box contributionRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Subscription-box contributionChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Subscription-box contributionAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Contribution per box
Contribution per box
expected paid revenue per box - product, fulfilment, shipping and payment cost21 , ex taxResult21.00
Uses the named industry records and reports this output, ex tax. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Contribution per boxOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Contribution per boxNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Contribution per boxBilling Cycles
- 6
- Contribution per boxBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Contribution per boxProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Contribution per boxPackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Contribution per boxShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Contribution per boxPayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Contribution per boxPayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Contribution per boxFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Contribution per boxRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Contribution per boxChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Contribution per boxAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Opening cohort contribution
Opening cohort contribution
contribution per box * opening subscribers2,100 , ex taxResult2,100.00
Uses the named industry records and reports this output, ex tax. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Opening cohort contributionOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Opening cohort contributionNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Opening cohort contributionBilling Cycles
- 6
- Opening cohort contributionBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Opening cohort contributionProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Opening cohort contributionPackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Opening cohort contributionShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Opening cohort contributionPayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Opening cohort contributionPayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Opening cohort contributionFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Opening cohort contributionRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Opening cohort contributionChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Opening cohort contributionAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Expected lifetime boxes
Expected lifetime boxes
1 / churn rate10 unitsResult10
Uses the named industry records and reports this output in units. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Expected lifetime boxesOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Expected lifetime boxesNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Expected lifetime boxesBilling Cycles
- 6
- Expected lifetime boxesBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Expected lifetime boxesProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Expected lifetime boxesPackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Expected lifetime boxesShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Expected lifetime boxesPayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Expected lifetime boxesPayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Expected lifetime boxesFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Expected lifetime boxesRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Expected lifetime boxesChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Expected lifetime boxesAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Contribution lifetime value
Contribution lifetime value
contribution per box * expected lifetime boxes210 , ex taxResult210.00
Uses the named industry records and reports this output, ex tax. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Contribution lifetime valueOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Contribution lifetime valueNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Contribution lifetime valueBilling Cycles
- 6
- Contribution lifetime valueBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Contribution lifetime valueProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Contribution lifetime valuePackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Contribution lifetime valueShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Contribution lifetime valuePayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Contribution lifetime valuePayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Contribution lifetime valueFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Contribution lifetime valueRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Contribution lifetime valueChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Contribution lifetime valueAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Acquisition payback cycles
Acquisition payback cycles
acquisition cost / positive contribution per box0.95 unitsResult0.95
Uses the named industry records and reports this output in units. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Acquisition payback cyclesOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Acquisition payback cyclesNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Acquisition payback cyclesBilling Cycles
- 6
- Acquisition payback cyclesBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Acquisition payback cyclesProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Acquisition payback cyclesPackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Acquisition payback cyclesShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Acquisition payback cyclesPayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Acquisition payback cyclesPayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Acquisition payback cyclesFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Acquisition payback cyclesRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Acquisition payback cyclesChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Acquisition payback cyclesAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Net contribution lifetime value
Net contribution lifetime value
contribution lifetime value - acquisition cost190 , ex taxResult190.00
Uses the named industry records and reports this output, ex tax. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Net contribution lifetime valueOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Net contribution lifetime valueNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Net contribution lifetime valueBilling Cycles
- 6
- Net contribution lifetime valueBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Net contribution lifetime valueProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Net contribution lifetime valuePackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Net contribution lifetime valueShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Net contribution lifetime valuePayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Net contribution lifetime valuePayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Net contribution lifetime valueFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Net contribution lifetime valueRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Net contribution lifetime valueChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Net contribution lifetime valueAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Subscription-box margin
Subscription-box margin
contribution / revenue0.4 decimal rateResult39.9%
Uses the named industry records and reports this output in decimal rate. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Subscription-box marginOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Subscription-box marginNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Subscription-box marginBilling Cycles
- 6
- Subscription-box marginBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Subscription-box marginProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Subscription-box marginPackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Subscription-box marginShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Subscription-box marginPayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Subscription-box marginPayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Subscription-box marginFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Subscription-box marginRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Subscription-box marginChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Subscription-box marginAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Ending subscribers
Ending subscribers
active subscribers after cycle-by-cycle churn95.31 unitsResult95.31
Uses the named industry records and reports this output in units. The shared engine retains full precision; display rounding never feeds the calculation.
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Ending subscribersOpening Subscribers
- 100
- Ending subscribersNew Subscribers Per Cycle
- 10
- Ending subscribersBilling Cycles
- 6
- Ending subscribersBox Price Ex Tax
- 50
- Ending subscribersProduct Cost Per Box Ex Tax
- 15
- Ending subscribersPackaging Fulfilment Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Ending subscribersShipping Per Box Ex Tax
- 5
- Ending subscribersPayment Fee Rate
- 0.02
- Ending subscribersPayment Fee Fixed Ex Tax
- 0.5
- Ending subscribersFailed Payment Rate
- 0.1
- Ending subscribersRefund Rate
- 0.05
- Ending subscribersChurn Rate
- 0.1
- Ending subscribersAcquisition Cost Per New Subscriber Ex Tax
- 20
Inputs used
- Opening subscribers (whole active subscribers before first billing cycle)
- 100
- New subscribers per cycle (whole new subscribers/billing cycle)
- 10
- Billing cycles projected (whole billing cycles/projection)
- 6
- Subscription box price (/net paid box, ex tax)
- 50
- Product cost per box (/shipped box, ex tax)
- 15
- Packaging and fulfilment per box (/shipped box, ex tax)
- 5
- Shipping cost per box (/shipped box, ex tax)
- 5
- Payment fee rate (decimal fraction of box revenue)
- 0.02
- Fixed payment fee per box (/shipped box, ex tax)
- 0.5
- Failed payment rate (decimal fraction of active subscribers failing payment per cycle)
- 0.1
- Refund rate (decimal fraction of shipped boxes refunded)
- 0.05
- Subscriber churn per cycle (decimal fraction of active subscribers lost per billing cycle)
- 0.1
- Acquisition cost per new subscriber (/new subscriber, ex tax)
- 20
Open this calculator with preset values
This calculator supports documented, shareable scenario URLs. Compatible assistants and applications can construct links using the parameters below.
Scenario links contain only allowlisted numeric and closed-choice inputs shown in the URL; Margin101 excludes free text and identifying fields. Anyone you share the URL with can read those numbers, so do not include private or identifying data.
| Parameter | Meaning | Unit | Allowed values | Presence | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| acquisitionCostPerNewSubscriberExTax | Entered acquisition spend per new subscriber added. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis. | currency units/new subscriber, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 20 |
| billingCycles | Whole recurring billing cycles in the projection. | whole billing cycles/projection | 0 to 120 | Required | 6 |
| boxPriceExTax | Entered price charged for each net paid box. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis. | currency units/net paid box, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 50 |
| churnRate | Share of active subscribers lost after each cycle. | decimal fraction of active subscribers lost per billing cycle | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.1 |
| failedPaymentRate | Share of active subscribers not shipped because payment fails. | decimal fraction of active subscribers failing payment per cycle | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.1 |
| newSubscribersPerCycle | Whole new subscribers added at the start of each cycle. | whole new subscribers/billing cycle | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 10 |
| openingSubscribers | Whole active subscribers before the first billing cycle. | whole active subscribers before first billing cycle | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 100 |
| packagingFulfilmentPerBoxExTax | Packaging and fulfilment cost for every box shipped. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis. | currency units/shipped box, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 5 |
| paymentFeeFixedExTax | Fixed processing fee for every box shipped. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis. | currency units/shipped box, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 0.5 |
| paymentFeeRate | Revenue-linked payment processing rate. | decimal fraction of box revenue | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.02 |
| productCostPerBoxExTax | Contents cost for every box shipped. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis. | currency units/shipped box, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 15 |
| refundRate | Share of shipped boxes whose price is refunded. | decimal fraction of shipped boxes refunded | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.05 |
| shippingPerBoxExTax | Delivery cost for every box shipped. Keep every amount on the same ex-tax currency basis. | currency units/shipped box, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 5 |
Subscription Box Profitability & Unit Economics: box contribution
Box contribution should be reviewed with churn and acquisition recovery, not shipment margin alone.
Formula summary
- Primary formula
- revenue - variable box cost - acquisition cost
Data used here
- The estimate uses your inputs and the general business formula documented in the methodology.
Decision checks
Stress-test the decision
Retest higher churn, shipping and replacement cost.
When this estimate can be misleading
- Industry costs, tax, contract terms, capacity and targets are entered by the user; no market benchmark is embedded.
- Use records from one consistent period and one ex-tax currency basis where money applies.
- This is educational business decision support, not accounting, tax, legal or financial advice.
- Box contribution should be reviewed with churn and acquisition recovery, not shipment margin alone.
Educational estimate, not advice. See all assumptions & limitations →
Related reading
Guides to interpret the decision and its assumptions.
- Subscription Box Churn and Inventory Commitment
Translate finite subscriber scenarios into inventory commitments without treating churn or demand as known.
Read guide
Frequently asked questions
How do I test box contribution after product, fulfilment, shipping, churn and acquisition burden?
Identify the largest controllable fulfilment or product-cost driver before scaling acquisition.
Which planning assumptions should I stress-test?
Compare a plausible alternative scenario and verify the decision-critical assumption that changes the plan most.