Act on the result
Set a price buffer or contract control for the weighted and worst-case exposure.
Educational only: Business decision support, not accounting, tax or legal advice.
Privacy: No account is required. Tool inputs and results stay in this browser. Anonymous categorical usage analytics send only governed page, tool, cluster and action identifiers; tool inputs and results are never sent. Error monitoring is disabled. Optional saved state stays only on this device.
Update policy: Reviewed when formulas or official dependencies change.
Scope: Market-neutral small-business planning using your own assumptions.
What this planner helps you decide
Best for
Project owners comparing best, base and worst delivery duration risk and a price-buffer response.
Outputs
Case contribution, weighted duration and cost, risk-adjusted contribution, buffered worst-case contribution and downside coverage.
Start here
Enter ordered best, base and worst durations and probabilities, monthly delivery cost and a price buffer.
Use a different tool when: Do not use this to set a sustainable monthly retainer; use Retainer Pricing Planner for that decision. Use this tool to price best, base and worst project duration exposure.
Quote & capacity
Project Duration Risk: case contribution
Case contribution, weighted duration and cost, risk-adjusted contribution, buffered worst-case contribution and downside coverage.
Amounts use the same currency as your inputs. No currency conversion is performed.
Project Duration Risk
Compare best, base and worst duration cases and test a price buffer response.
Your numbers stay in this browser
Project revenue.
Cost during planned delivery.
Upside duration.
Probability of the upside case.
Expected duration.
Probability of the base case.
Downside duration.
Probability of the downside case.
Additional revenue tested against downside duration.
Decision result
Every result is derived by the registered service and project engine.
PDF and CSV exports stay on this device. Clean page links contain no inputs.
- Best Case Contribution
- 55,000.00/project
- Base Case Contribution
- 40,000.00/project
- Worst Case Contribution
- 10,000.00/project
- Expected Duration Months
- 4.4 months
- Expected Delivery Cost
- 66,000.00/project
- Risk-adjusted contribution
- 34,000.00/project
- Risk Adjusted Margin
- 34%
- Buffered Revenue
- 110,000.00/project
- Buffered Worst Case Contribution
- 20,000.00/project
- Downside Coverage
- 10,000.00/project
Scenario comparison
Each row names the assumption axis changed from the baseline.
ScenarioResultDifference
Current scenario34,000.00/projectBaseline
Lower Price buffer34,000.00/project+0.00/project (+0%)
Higher Price buffer34,000.00/project+0.00/project (+0%)
Save these results, change an input, then compare the updated figures with this baseline.
The baseline is temporary in this tab and is not added to shared scenario links or generated reports.
Calculation details
View calculation detailsView the formulas and inputs used for these results.
Risk-adjusted contribution
Risk Adjusted Contribution
revenue โ probability-weighted delivery cost34,000/projectResult34,000.00/project
Reports/project from the entered project, capacity and ex-tax commercial assumptions. The engine retains full precision; presentation is bounded for readability.
Project Duration Risk Planner formulas โInputs used by these formula steps
- Risk Adjusted ContributionContract Revenue
- 100,000
- Risk Adjusted ContributionMonthly Delivery Cost
- 15,000
- Risk Adjusted ContributionBest Case Months
- 3
- Risk Adjusted ContributionBest Case Probability
- 0.2
- Risk Adjusted ContributionBase Case Months
- 4
- Risk Adjusted ContributionBase Case Probability
- 0.5
- Risk Adjusted ContributionWorst Case Months
- 6
- Risk Adjusted ContributionWorst Case Probability
- 0.3
- Risk Adjusted ContributionPrice Buffer Rate
- 0.1
Best Case Contribution
Best Case Contribution
revenue โ best months ร monthly cost55,000/projectResult55,000.00/project
Reports/project from the entered project, capacity and ex-tax commercial assumptions. The engine retains full precision; presentation is bounded for readability.
Project Duration Risk Planner formulas โInputs used by these formula steps
- Best Case ContributionContract Revenue
- 100,000
- Best Case ContributionMonthly Delivery Cost
- 15,000
- Best Case ContributionBest Case Months
- 3
- Best Case ContributionBest Case Probability
- 0.2
- Best Case ContributionBase Case Months
- 4
- Best Case ContributionBase Case Probability
- 0.5
- Best Case ContributionWorst Case Months
- 6
- Best Case ContributionWorst Case Probability
- 0.3
- Best Case ContributionPrice Buffer Rate
- 0.1
Base Case Contribution
Base Case Contribution
revenue โ base months ร monthly cost40,000/projectResult40,000.00/project
Reports/project from the entered project, capacity and ex-tax commercial assumptions. The engine retains full precision; presentation is bounded for readability.
Project Duration Risk Planner formulas โInputs used by these formula steps
- Base Case ContributionContract Revenue
- 100,000
- Base Case ContributionMonthly Delivery Cost
- 15,000
- Base Case ContributionBest Case Months
- 3
- Base Case ContributionBest Case Probability
- 0.2
- Base Case ContributionBase Case Months
- 4
- Base Case ContributionBase Case Probability
- 0.5
- Base Case ContributionWorst Case Months
- 6
- Base Case ContributionWorst Case Probability
- 0.3
- Base Case ContributionPrice Buffer Rate
- 0.1
Worst Case Contribution
Worst Case Contribution
revenue โ worst months ร monthly cost10,000/projectResult10,000.00/project
Reports/project from the entered project, capacity and ex-tax commercial assumptions. The engine retains full precision; presentation is bounded for readability.
Project Duration Risk Planner formulas โInputs used by these formula steps
- Worst Case ContributionContract Revenue
- 100,000
- Worst Case ContributionMonthly Delivery Cost
- 15,000
- Worst Case ContributionBest Case Months
- 3
- Worst Case ContributionBest Case Probability
- 0.2
- Worst Case ContributionBase Case Months
- 4
- Worst Case ContributionBase Case Probability
- 0.5
- Worst Case ContributionWorst Case Months
- 6
- Worst Case ContributionWorst Case Probability
- 0.3
- Worst Case ContributionPrice Buffer Rate
- 0.1
Expected Duration Months
Expected Duration Months
ฮฃ(case months ร probability)4.4 monthsResult4.4 months
Reports months from the entered project, capacity and ex-tax commercial assumptions. The engine retains full precision; presentation is bounded for readability.
Project Duration Risk Planner formulas โInputs used by these formula steps
- Expected Duration MonthsContract Revenue
- 100,000
- Expected Duration MonthsMonthly Delivery Cost
- 15,000
- Expected Duration MonthsBest Case Months
- 3
- Expected Duration MonthsBest Case Probability
- 0.2
- Expected Duration MonthsBase Case Months
- 4
- Expected Duration MonthsBase Case Probability
- 0.5
- Expected Duration MonthsWorst Case Months
- 6
- Expected Duration MonthsWorst Case Probability
- 0.3
- Expected Duration MonthsPrice Buffer Rate
- 0.1
Expected Delivery Cost
Expected Delivery Cost
expected duration ร monthly delivery cost66,000/projectResult66,000.00/project
Reports/project from the entered project, capacity and ex-tax commercial assumptions. The engine retains full precision; presentation is bounded for readability.
Project Duration Risk Planner formulas โInputs used by these formula steps
- Expected Delivery CostContract Revenue
- 100,000
- Expected Delivery CostMonthly Delivery Cost
- 15,000
- Expected Delivery CostBest Case Months
- 3
- Expected Delivery CostBest Case Probability
- 0.2
- Expected Delivery CostBase Case Months
- 4
- Expected Delivery CostBase Case Probability
- 0.5
- Expected Delivery CostWorst Case Months
- 6
- Expected Delivery CostWorst Case Probability
- 0.3
- Expected Delivery CostPrice Buffer Rate
- 0.1
Risk Adjusted Margin
Risk Adjusted Margin
risk-adjusted contribution รท contract revenue0.34 decimal rateResult34%
Reports decimal rate from the entered project, capacity and ex-tax commercial assumptions. The engine retains full precision; presentation is bounded for readability.
Project Duration Risk Planner formulas โInputs used by these formula steps
- Risk Adjusted MarginContract Revenue
- 100,000
- Risk Adjusted MarginMonthly Delivery Cost
- 15,000
- Risk Adjusted MarginBest Case Months
- 3
- Risk Adjusted MarginBest Case Probability
- 0.2
- Risk Adjusted MarginBase Case Months
- 4
- Risk Adjusted MarginBase Case Probability
- 0.5
- Risk Adjusted MarginWorst Case Months
- 6
- Risk Adjusted MarginWorst Case Probability
- 0.3
- Risk Adjusted MarginPrice Buffer Rate
- 0.1
Buffered Revenue
Buffered Revenue
contract revenue ร (1 + price buffer)110,000/projectResult110,000.00/project
Reports/project from the entered project, capacity and ex-tax commercial assumptions. The engine retains full precision; presentation is bounded for readability.
Project Duration Risk Planner formulas โInputs used by these formula steps
- Buffered RevenueContract Revenue
- 100,000
- Buffered RevenueMonthly Delivery Cost
- 15,000
- Buffered RevenueBest Case Months
- 3
- Buffered RevenueBest Case Probability
- 0.2
- Buffered RevenueBase Case Months
- 4
- Buffered RevenueBase Case Probability
- 0.5
- Buffered RevenueWorst Case Months
- 6
- Buffered RevenueWorst Case Probability
- 0.3
- Buffered RevenuePrice Buffer Rate
- 0.1
Buffered Worst Case Contribution
Buffered Worst Case Contribution
buffered revenue โ worst-case cost20,000/projectResult20,000.00/project
Reports/project from the entered project, capacity and ex-tax commercial assumptions. The engine retains full precision; presentation is bounded for readability.
Project Duration Risk Planner formulas โInputs used by these formula steps
- Buffered Worst Case ContributionContract Revenue
- 100,000
- Buffered Worst Case ContributionMonthly Delivery Cost
- 15,000
- Buffered Worst Case ContributionBest Case Months
- 3
- Buffered Worst Case ContributionBest Case Probability
- 0.2
- Buffered Worst Case ContributionBase Case Months
- 4
- Buffered Worst Case ContributionBase Case Probability
- 0.5
- Buffered Worst Case ContributionWorst Case Months
- 6
- Buffered Worst Case ContributionWorst Case Probability
- 0.3
- Buffered Worst Case ContributionPrice Buffer Rate
- 0.1
Downside Coverage
Downside Coverage
buffered worst contribution โ unbuffered worst contribution10,000/projectResult10,000.00/project
Reports/project from the entered project, capacity and ex-tax commercial assumptions. The engine retains full precision; presentation is bounded for readability.
Project Duration Risk Planner formulas โInputs used by these formula steps
- Downside CoverageContract Revenue
- 100,000
- Downside CoverageMonthly Delivery Cost
- 15,000
- Downside CoverageBest Case Months
- 3
- Downside CoverageBest Case Probability
- 0.2
- Downside CoverageBase Case Months
- 4
- Downside CoverageBase Case Probability
- 0.5
- Downside CoverageWorst Case Months
- 6
- Downside CoverageWorst Case Probability
- 0.3
- Downside CoveragePrice Buffer Rate
- 0.1
Inputs used
- Contract revenue
- 100,000
- Monthly delivery cost
- 15,000
- Best-case months
- 3
- Best-case probability
- 0.2
- Base-case months
- 4
- Base-case probability
- 0.5
- Worst-case months
- 6
- Worst-case probability
- 0.3
- Price buffer
- 0.1
Open this calculator with preset values
This calculator supports documented, shareable scenario URLs. Compatible assistants and applications can construct links using the parameters below.
Scenario links contain only allowlisted numeric and closed-choice inputs shown in the URL; Margin101 excludes free text and identifying fields. Anyone you share the URL with can read those numbers, so do not include private or identifying data.
| Parameter | Meaning | Unit | Allowed values | Presence | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| baseCaseMonths | Expected duration. | months/project | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 4 |
| baseCaseProbability | Probability of the base case. | decimal probability | 0 to 0.99 | Required | 0.5 |
| bestCaseMonths | Upside duration. | months/project | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 3 |
| bestCaseProbability | Probability of the upside case. | decimal probability | 0 to 0.99 | Required | 0.2 |
| contractRevenue | Project revenue. | currency units/project | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 100000 |
| monthlyDeliveryCost | Cost during planned delivery. | currency units/month | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 15000 |
| priceBufferRate | Additional revenue tested against downside duration. | proportion of expected delivery cost added as risk buffer | 0 to 0.99 | Required | 0.1 |
| worstCaseMonths | Downside duration. | months/project | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 6 |
| worstCaseProbability | Probability of the downside case. | decimal probability | 0 to 0.99 | Required | 0.3 |
Project Duration Risk: case contribution
The project duration risk result uses only the entered commercial assumptions.
Formula summary
- Primary formula
- risk-adjusted contribution = revenue โ probability-weighted delivery cost
Data used here
- The estimate uses your inputs and the general business formula documented in the methodology.
Decision checks
Stress-test the decision
Increase worst-case duration and probability, then retest the price buffer.
When this estimate can be misleading
- Results depend on the accuracy and consistent basis of user-entered assumptions.
- The planner does not forecast demand, delivery performance or contract outcomes.
- Use the result as educational business decision support, not accounting, tax or legal advice.
- The project duration risk result uses only the entered commercial assumptions.
Educational estimate, not advice. See all assumptions & limitations โ
Related reading
Guides to interpret the decision and its assumptions.
- How to Price a Project Quote With Scope Risk
Map scope uncertainty, cost the agreed delivery boundary and choose a commercial response before calculating the exact quote.
Read guide
Frequently asked questions
How do I price best, base and worst project duration exposure?
Set a price buffer or contract control for the weighted and worst-case exposure.
Which planning assumptions should I stress-test?
Compare a plausible alternative scenario and verify the decision-critical assumption that changes the plan most.