Act on the result
Compare the expedite cost per short unit with the calculated lost-contribution break-even before accelerating supply.
Educational only: Business decision support, not accounting, tax or legal advice.
Privacy: No account is required. Tool inputs and results stay in this browser. Anonymous categorical usage analytics send only governed page, tool, cluster and action identifiers; tool inputs and results are never sent. Error monitoring is disabled. Optional saved state stays only on this device.
Update policy: Reviewed when formulas or official dependencies change.
Scope: Market-neutral small-business planning using your own assumptions.
What this planner helps you decide
Best for
Inventory operators estimating the commercial effect of a replenishment shortfall.
Outputs
Short, lost and deferred units plus lost contribution, expedite cost and the expedite break-even rate.
Start here
Use demand, usable stock and confirmed inbound supply for one window, then enter your own lost-sales share.
Use a different tool when: Do not use this to set an inventory reorder point from demand and lead-time risk; use Reorder Point Planner for that decision. Use this tool to estimate lost contribution and expedite cost from an inventory shortfall.
Commerce & operations
Stockout Cost: short
Short, lost and deferred units plus lost contribution, expedite cost and the expedite break-even rate.
Amounts use the same currency as your inputs. No currency conversion is performed.
Stockout Cost
Separate shortage units into lost and deferred demand, then compare lost contribution with entered expedite cost.
Your numbers stay in this browser
Enter demand for the same replenishment window.
Use stock that can serve demand in this window.
Include only supply expected to be usable inside the window.
Estimate the share of short units that will not be deferred or backordered.
Use selling price less the costs avoided when a unit is not sold. Use one consistent ex-tax currency basis.
Enter the incremental cost to accelerate one short unit. Use one consistent ex-tax currency basis.
Decision result
Every value is bound to the registered inventory or hospitality engine and keeps the decision components visible on one consistent basis.
- Short Units
- 20 units
- Lost Units
- 12 units
- Deferred Units
- 8 units
- Lost Contribution
- 300.00
- Expedite Cost
- 60.00
- Total stockout cost
- 360.00
- Break Even Expedite Cost Per Short Unit
- 15.00
Scenario comparison
Each row names the assumption axis changed from the baseline.
ScenarioResultDifference
Current scenario360.00Baseline
Lower Lost-sales share330.00-30.00
Higher Lost-sales share390.0030.00
Save these results, change an input, then compare the updated figures with this baseline.
The baseline is temporary in this tab and is not added to shared scenario links or generated reports.
Calculation details
View calculation detailsView the formulas and inputs used for these results.
Short Units
Short Units
max(0, expected demand − available stock − confirmed inbound)20 unitsResult20 units
Uses one consistent period, item basis and market-neutral ex-tax currency where money applies. The engine retains full precision; display rounding does not feed calculation.
Stockout Cost Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Short UnitsExpected Demand Units
- 100
- Short UnitsAvailable Stock Units
- 70
- Short UnitsConfirmed Inbound Units
- 10
- Short UnitsLost Sales Share
- 0.6
- Short UnitsContribution Per Unit
- 25
- Short UnitsExpedite Cost Per Short Unit
- 3
Lost Units
Lost Units
short units × lost-sales share12 unitsResult12 units
Uses one consistent period, item basis and market-neutral ex-tax currency where money applies. The engine retains full precision; display rounding does not feed calculation.
Stockout Cost Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Lost UnitsExpected Demand Units
- 100
- Lost UnitsAvailable Stock Units
- 70
- Lost UnitsConfirmed Inbound Units
- 10
- Lost UnitsLost Sales Share
- 0.6
- Lost UnitsContribution Per Unit
- 25
- Lost UnitsExpedite Cost Per Short Unit
- 3
Deferred Units
Deferred Units
short units − lost units8 unitsResult8 units
Uses one consistent period, item basis and market-neutral ex-tax currency where money applies. The engine retains full precision; display rounding does not feed calculation.
Stockout Cost Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Deferred UnitsExpected Demand Units
- 100
- Deferred UnitsAvailable Stock Units
- 70
- Deferred UnitsConfirmed Inbound Units
- 10
- Deferred UnitsLost Sales Share
- 0.6
- Deferred UnitsContribution Per Unit
- 25
- Deferred UnitsExpedite Cost Per Short Unit
- 3
Lost Contribution
Lost Contribution
lost units × contribution per unit300.00Result300.00
Uses one consistent period, item basis and market-neutral ex-tax currency where money applies. The engine retains full precision; display rounding does not feed calculation.
Stockout Cost Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Lost ContributionExpected Demand Units
- 100
- Lost ContributionAvailable Stock Units
- 70
- Lost ContributionConfirmed Inbound Units
- 10
- Lost ContributionLost Sales Share
- 0.6
- Lost ContributionContribution Per Unit
- 25
- Lost ContributionExpedite Cost Per Short Unit
- 3
Expedite Cost
Expedite Cost
short units × expedite cost per short unit60.00Result60.00
Uses one consistent period, item basis and market-neutral ex-tax currency where money applies. The engine retains full precision; display rounding does not feed calculation.
Stockout Cost Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Expedite CostExpected Demand Units
- 100
- Expedite CostAvailable Stock Units
- 70
- Expedite CostConfirmed Inbound Units
- 10
- Expedite CostLost Sales Share
- 0.6
- Expedite CostContribution Per Unit
- 25
- Expedite CostExpedite Cost Per Short Unit
- 3
Total stockout cost
Total Stockout Cost
lost contribution + expedite cost360.00Result360.00
Uses one consistent period, item basis and market-neutral ex-tax currency where money applies. The engine retains full precision; display rounding does not feed calculation.
Stockout Cost Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Total Stockout CostExpected Demand Units
- 100
- Total Stockout CostAvailable Stock Units
- 70
- Total Stockout CostConfirmed Inbound Units
- 10
- Total Stockout CostLost Sales Share
- 0.6
- Total Stockout CostContribution Per Unit
- 25
- Total Stockout CostExpedite Cost Per Short Unit
- 3
Break Even Expedite Cost Per Short Unit
Break Even Expedite Cost Per Short Unit
lost-sales share × contribution per unit15.00Result15.00
Uses one consistent period, item basis and market-neutral ex-tax currency where money applies. The engine retains full precision; display rounding does not feed calculation.
Stockout Cost Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Break Even Expedite Cost Per Short UnitExpected Demand Units
- 100
- Break Even Expedite Cost Per Short UnitAvailable Stock Units
- 70
- Break Even Expedite Cost Per Short UnitConfirmed Inbound Units
- 10
- Break Even Expedite Cost Per Short UnitLost Sales Share
- 0.6
- Break Even Expedite Cost Per Short UnitContribution Per Unit
- 25
- Break Even Expedite Cost Per Short UnitExpedite Cost Per Short Unit
- 3
Inputs used
- Expected demand units
- 100
- Available stock units
- 70
- Confirmed inbound units
- 10
- Lost-sales share
- 0.6
- Contribution per unit
- 25.00
- Expedite cost per short unit
- 3.00
Open this calculator with preset values
This calculator supports documented, shareable scenario URLs. Compatible assistants and applications can construct links using the parameters below.
Scenario links contain only allowlisted numeric and closed-choice inputs shown in the URL; Margin101 excludes free text and identifying fields. Anyone you share the URL with can read those numbers, so do not include private or identifying data.
| Parameter | Meaning | Unit | Allowed values | Presence | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| availableStockUnits | Use stock that can serve demand in this window. | whole product units | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 70 |
| confirmedInboundUnits | Include only supply expected to be usable inside the window. | whole product units | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 10 |
| contributionPerUnit | Use selling price less the costs avoided when a unit is not sold. Use one consistent ex-tax currency basis. | currency units/product unit, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 25 |
| expectedDemandUnits | Enter demand for the same replenishment window. | whole product units | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 100 |
| expediteCostPerShortUnit | Enter the incremental cost to accelerate one short unit. Use one consistent ex-tax currency basis. | currency units/product unit, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 3 |
| lostSalesShare | Estimate the share of short units that will not be deferred or backordered. | proportion of shortage units expected to become lost sales | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.6 |
Stockout Cost: short
Use the lost and deferred unit split to expose which entered assumption drives the stockout estimate.
Formula summary
- Primary formula
- lost contribution + expedite cost
Data used here
- The estimate uses your inputs and the general business formula documented in the methodology.
Decision checks
Stress-test the decision
Retest lower inbound reliability, a higher lost-sales share and lower contribution per unit.
When this estimate can be misleading
- Demand, costs, lead times, tax and targets are user-entered scenarios; no market benchmark is embedded.
- Use one consistent item, period and ex-tax currency basis where money applies.
- This is educational business decision support, not accounting, tax, legal or financial advice.
- Use the lost and deferred unit split to expose which entered assumption drives the stockout estimate.
Educational estimate, not advice. See all assumptions & limitations →
Related reading
Guides to interpret the decision and its assumptions.
- Stockout vs Overstock: Choose the Less Expensive Risk
Compare stockout and overstock downside scenarios on one horizon while keeping cash commitment and recoverability separate.
Read guide
Frequently asked questions
How do I estimate lost contribution and expedite cost from an inventory shortfall?
Compare the expedite cost per short unit with the calculated lost-contribution break-even before accelerating supply.
Which planning assumptions should I stress-test?
Compare a plausible alternative scenario and verify the decision-critical assumption that changes the plan most.