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Methodology

Ecommerce Order Profitability Planner methodology

This planner creates a per-order contribution view from ex-indirect tax revenue and an explicit variable-cost stack. It is designed for comparing price, channel and campaign assumptions, not for reporting accounting profit.

Educational only: Business decision support, not accounting, tax or legal advice.

Privacy: Calculations run locally; Margin101 does not receive your commercial inputs.

Update policy: Reviewed when formulas or official dependencies change.

Scope: Market-neutral small-business planning using your own assumptions.

1. Formulas and units

Indirect tax reversal
R = Pₙ ÷ (1 + g)

Where

R
revenue excluding indirect tax (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
g
indirect tax rate (decimal)Source: User assumption
Pₙ
customer price including indirect tax (currency units/order)Source: Business record
Indirect tax removed
T = Pₙ − R

Where

R
revenue excluding indirect tax (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
T
indirect tax removed from customer price (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
Pₙ
customer price including indirect tax (currency units/order)Source: Business record
Provider fee stack
F = Pₙ × f + F₀

Where

F
provider fee stack (currency units/order)Source: Business record
Pₙ
customer price including indirect tax (currency units/order)Source: Business record
f, F₀
percentage and fixed provider fees (decimal and currency units/order)Source: Business record
Expected return impact
E = max(0, q × (R + L − Cᵣ − Fᵣ))

Where

R
revenue excluding indirect tax (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
q
refund and recovery rates (decimal)Source: User assumption
L, Cᵣ, Fᵣ
reverse logistics and recoverable cost/fee amounts (currency units/order)Source: User assumption
E
expected return impact (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
max
non-negative maximum operator (operator)Source: Calculated output
Contribution
K = R − C − F − A − E

Where

R
revenue excluding indirect tax (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
F
provider fee stack (currency units/order)Source: Business record
C
entered cost stack (currency units/order)Source: Business record
E
expected return impact (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
A
advertising cost (currency units/order)Source: Business record
K
contribution per order (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
Contribution margin
m = K ÷ R

Where

R
revenue excluding indirect tax (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
K
contribution per order (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
m
contribution margin (decimal)Source: Calculated output
Break-even advertising cost
Bᵣ = R − C − F − E; B = { Bᵣ, Bᵣ ≥ 0; ∅, Bᵣ < 0 }

Where

R
revenue excluding indirect tax (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
F
provider fee stack (currency units/order)Source: Business record
C
entered cost stack (currency units/order)Source: Business record
E
expected return impact (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
B
break-even advertising cost (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output
Bᵣ
raw advertising ceiling before reachability classification (currency units/order)Source: Calculated output

Money inputs and outputs use the currency selected in the scenario without changing the canonical methodology. Rates, margins, utilisation and buffers are entered as percentages and converted to decimal values for calculation.

2. Worked example

Input assumptions

The registered default fixture uses 110.00 currency units customer price with 0% indirect tax, 50.00 currency units product cost, 10.00 currency units shipping, 2.00 currency units packaging, 12% marketplace fee and 3% payment fee plus 0.30 currency units fixed fee. These are editable examples, not provider defaults.

Calculation and outputs

Example

The registered default fixture uses 110.00 currency units customer price with 0% indirect tax, 50.00 currency units product cost, 10.00 currency units shipping, 2.00 currency units packaging, 12% marketplace fee and 3% payment fee plus 0.30 currency units fixed fee. These are editable examples, not provider defaults.

Indirect tax removed from customer price
0.00 currency units
Revenue ex indirect tax
110.00 currency units
Provider fee stack
16.80 currency units
Expected return impact
3.80 currency units
Contribution
17.40 currency units
Contribution margin
15.8%

The same engine fixture produces 110.00 currency units ex-indirect tax revenue, 3.80 currency units expected return impact and 17.40 currency units contribution per order before display rounding.

Interpretation

Use contribution per order to decide whether the current price and cost stack leave enough room for growth and overhead.

3. Validation and boundary checks

  • All variable-cost components should reconcile to revenue less contribution.
  • Customer price must reconcile as ex-indirect-tax revenue plus the tax amount removed.
  • Increasing any single cost by 1 currency units reduces contribution by 1 currency units when other inputs stay fixed.
  • A zero provider fee rate and zero fixed fee produce no provider fee. Better product recoverability or fee reversal cannot reduce contribution.
  • A raw advertising ceiling of exactly zero is a reachable zero break-even; a negative raw ceiling is unavailable because the order loses money before advertising.

4. Assumptions and source classification

  • Product, fulfilment, packaging, advertising and reverse-logistics amounts are user-entered ex-indirect tax economic costs. Confirm their accounting treatment against your records.
  • Percentage provider fees are applied to the customer price including indirect tax; the fixed fee is the user-entered provider contract amount. The planner does not infer indirect tax credits or provider tax treatment.
  • The indirect tax rate is an editable user assumption used to distinguish tax-inclusive and tax-exclusive amounts where selected; confirm the applicable jurisdictional treatment.
  • Contribution and contribution margin are calculated planning outputs; they are not net profit or an accounting classification.

This planner has no current policy-data dependency. Its commercial assumptions are user supplied. Registered family-level regression suites exercise the shared business-logic engine and worked-result reconciliation.

5. Limitations

  • The model excludes fixed overhead, wages not entered as per-order costs, inventory timing, income tax and working-capital effects.
  • Provider and marketplace fees can have tiers, caps, categories and contract-specific tax treatment. The planner does not claim a current provider preset.

This is educational decision support, not tax, accounting, legal or financial advice. Check the treatment of your actual transactions under the rules that apply to your business and seek qualified advice where appropriate.

6. Update and evidence policy

Registered family-level suites test formula invariants and example reconciliation; the release ledger records that coverage without claiming a separate oracle for every line of public copy. There is no official threshold or benchmark to refresh for this planner. Commercial inputs remain user-supplied because they vary by business and contract.

Change history

  1. : Initial public release of the planner and methodology after pre-launch calculation, content, source and interaction review.

Guides to interpret the decision and its assumptions.

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