Educational only: Business decision support, not accounting, tax or legal advice.
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Scope: Market-neutral small-business planning using your own assumptions.
What this planner helps you decide
Best for
Ecommerce sellers measuring how returns and recoveries affect order contribution.
Outputs
Loss per return, period impact, net contribution and the price buffer required.
Start here
Enter return and recovery rates from your own records, then test a higher-return scenario.
Use a different tool when: Do not use this to test order contribution after the full fee stack; use Ecommerce Order Profitability Planner for that decision. Use this tool to test period contribution after returns and recovery assumptions.
Commerce & operations
Returns Profit Impact: loss per return
Loss per return, period impact, net contribution and the price buffer required.
Amounts use the same currency as your inputs. No currency conversion is performed.
Returns cohort assumptions
Model one period using your own order economics and return-policy assumptions.
Your numbers stay in this browser
Orders placed in one consistent period.
Average product revenue.
Order contribution after other costs; may be negative.
Returned orders as a share of original orders.
Share of product cost economically recovered after a return.
Recovery, reverse logistics, fee reversal and price bufferOpen the assumptions you are less likely to change on every comparison.
Recoverable product cost basis.
Enter the provider contract fees eligible for your reversal assumption on the same ex-indirect tax economic basis as the other costs.
Shipping, handling and processing cost for each return.
Share of the entered fee stack recovered after a return.
Expected contribution retained from each extra ex-indirect tax price dollar.
Returns impact
Cohort economics from your selected planning period.
PDF and CSV exports stay on this device. Clean page links contain no inputs.
The current marker is your entered return rate; nearby engine scenarios isolate the effect of a two-point movement.
Modelled period contribution
- Zero period contribution
- 0.00
| Return rate (%) | Modelled period contribution |
|---|---|
| 6% | 25,980.00 |
| 8% (current) | 24,640.00 |
| 10% | 23,300.00 |
Scenario comparison
Each row names the assumption axis changed from the baseline.
ScenarioResultDifference
Entered returns plan24,640.00Baseline
Return rate 2 points lower25,980.001,340.00
Return rate 2 points higher23,300.00-1,340.00
Recovery 10 points higher25,040.00400.00
Save these results, change an input, then compare the updated figures with this baseline.
The baseline is temporary in this tab and is not added to shared scenario links or generated reports.
Calculation details
View calculation detailsView the formulas and inputs used for these results.
Net contribution per original order
Loss per returned order
max(0, revenue + reverse logistics − product recovery − fee reversal)67/returned order ex indirect taxExpected return loss per original order
return rate × loss per returned order5.36/original order ex indirect taxNet contribution per original order
pre-return contribution − expected return loss24.64/original order ex indirect taxResult24.64
Contribution after expected return loss for one original order, excluding indirect tax.
Review the net contribution formula →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Loss per returned orderRevenue
- 100
- Loss per returned orderReverse Logistics
- 12
- Loss per returned orderProduct Recovery
- 37.5
- Loss per returned orderFee Reversal
- 7.5
- Expected return loss per original orderReturn Rate
- 0.08
- Expected return loss per original orderLoss Per Return
- 67
- Net contribution per original orderPre Return Contribution
- 30
- Net contribution per original orderExpected Return Loss
- 5.36
Expected return loss per original order
Refund revenue per returned order
entered ex-indirect tax revenue refunded for one returned order100/returned order ex indirect taxReverse-logistics cost per returned order
entered reverse-logistics cost12/returned order ex indirect taxProduct recovery credit per returned order
product cost × recoverable product rate37.50/returned order ex indirect taxFee reversal credit per returned order
fee stack × fee reversal rate7.50/returned order ex indirect taxLoss per returned order
max(0, revenue + reverse logistics − product recovery − fee reversal)67/returned order ex indirect taxExpected return loss per original order
return rate × loss per returned order5.36/original order ex indirect taxResult5.36
Return-rate-weighted economic loss per original order, excluding indirect tax.
Review the expected return-loss formula →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Refund revenue per returned orderRevenue
- 100
- Reverse-logistics cost per returned orderReverse Logistics
- 12
- Product recovery credit per returned orderProduct Cost
- 50
- Product recovery credit per returned orderRecovery Rate
- 0.75
- Fee reversal credit per returned orderFee Stack
- 15
- Fee reversal credit per returned orderFee Reversal Rate
- 0.5
- Loss per returned orderRevenue
- 100
- Loss per returned orderReverse Logistics
- 12
- Loss per returned orderProduct Recovery
- 37.5
- Loss per returned orderFee Reversal
- 7.5
- Expected return loss per original orderReturn Rate
- 0.08
- Expected return loss per original orderLoss Per Return
- 67
Return impact per period
Expected return loss per original order
return rate × loss per returned order5.36/original order ex indirect taxNo-return contribution per period
original orders × pre-return contribution per order30,000/period ex indirect taxModelled contribution per period
original orders × net contribution per original order24,640/period ex indirect taxReturn impact per period
original orders × negative expected return loss per original order-5,360/period ex indirect taxResult-5,360.00
Change from no-return contribution for the selected planning period, excluding indirect tax.
Review the period return-impact formula →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Expected return loss per original orderReturn Rate
- 0.08
- Expected return loss per original orderLoss Per Return
- 67
- No-return contribution per periodOrders
- 1,000
- No-return contribution per periodPre Return Contribution
- 30
- Modelled contribution per periodOrders
- 1,000
- Modelled contribution per periodNet Contribution
- 24.64
- Return impact per periodOrders
- 1,000
- Return impact per periodExpected Return Loss
- 5.36
Economic break-even return rate
Loss per returned order
max(0, revenue + reverse logistics − product recovery − fee reversal)67/returned order ex indirect taxEconomic break-even return rate
pre-return contribution per order ÷ loss per returned order0.45Result44.78%
Return rate that consumes the entered pre-return contribution per order. Displayed to two decimal percentage points; the engine retains full precision.
Review the break-even return-rate formula →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Loss per returned orderRevenue
- 100
- Loss per returned orderReverse Logistics
- 12
- Loss per returned orderProduct Recovery
- 37.5
- Loss per returned orderFee Reversal
- 7.5
- Economic break-even return ratePre Return Contribution
- 30
- Economic break-even return rateLoss Per Return
- 67
Required price buffer
Expected return loss per original order
return rate × loss per returned order5.36/original order ex indirect taxRequired price buffer
expected return loss per original order ÷ incremental price retention rate6.31/order ex indirect taxResult6.31
Extra ex-indirect tax price required under the entered incremental price-retention assumption.
Review the optional price-buffer formula →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Expected return loss per original orderReturn Rate
- 0.08
- Expected return loss per original orderLoss Per Return
- 67
- Required price bufferExpected Return Loss
- 5.36
- Required price bufferPrice Retention Rate
- 0.85
Inputs used
- Original orders per planning period
- 1,000
- Revenue per order, excluding indirect tax
- 100.00
- Contribution before returns, excluding indirect tax
- 30.00
- Product cost per order
- 50.00
- Fee stack per order, excluding indirect tax economic cost
- 15.00
- Return rate
- 8%
- Product cost recovery rate
- 75%
- Reverse logistics per return
- 12.00
- Fee reversal rate
- 50%
- Incremental price retention rate
- 85%
Open this calculator with preset values
This calculator supports documented, shareable scenario URLs. Compatible assistants and applications can construct links using the parameters below.
Scenario links contain only allowlisted numeric and closed-choice inputs shown in the URL; Margin101 excludes free text and identifying fields. Anyone you share the URL with can read those numbers, so do not include private or identifying data.
| Parameter | Meaning | Unit | Allowed values | Presence | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| feeReversalRate | Share of the entered fee stack recovered after a return. | proportion of entered fee stack recovered after return | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.5 |
| feeStackPerOrder | Enter the provider contract fees eligible for your reversal assumption on the same ex-indirect tax economic basis as the other costs. | currency units/order, ex indirect tax economic basis | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 15 |
| incrementalPriceRetentionRate | Expected contribution retained from each extra ex-indirect tax price dollar. | contribution retained per currency unit of additional ex-tax price | 0.01 to 1 | Required | 0.85 |
| ordersPerPeriod | Orders placed in one consistent period. | orders/planning period | 0.01 to 10000000 | Required | 1000 |
| preReturnContributionPerOrderExGst | Order contribution after other costs; may be negative. | currency units/order before returns, ex indirect tax | -10000000 to 10000000 | Required | 30 |
| productCostPerOrderExGst | Recoverable product cost basis. | currency units/order, ex indirect tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 50 |
| recoverableProductRate | Share of product cost economically recovered after a return. | proportion of returned product cost recovered | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.75 |
| returnRate | Returned orders as a share of original orders. | proportion of original orders returned | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.08 |
| revenueExGstPerOrder | Average product revenue. | currency units/order, ex indirect tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 100 |
| reverseLogisticsCostPerReturnExGst | Shipping, handling and processing cost for each return. | currency units/return, ex indirect tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 12 |
Returns Profit Impact: loss per return
Use the period impact to identify how much contribution returns consume after recovery and handling effects.
Formula summary
- Primary formula
- expected return loss per original order = return rate × loss per returned order
Data used here
- The estimate uses your inputs and the general business formula documented in the methodology.
Decision checks
Act on the result
Prioritise the product, fulfilment or policy change that can reduce the largest avoidable loss per return.
Stress-test the decision
Retest a higher return rate and lower recovery value before setting a price buffer or campaign budget.
When this estimate can be misleading
- Return, recovery, fee reversal and price retention rates are your assumptions.
- Use ex-indirect tax amounts on one consistent accounting and planning-period basis.
- The model excludes indirect tax refund accounting, exchanges, store credit, inventory timing and provider rules.
- Use the period impact to identify how much contribution returns consume after recovery and handling effects.
Educational estimate, not advice. See all assumptions & limitations →
Related reading
Guides to interpret the decision and its assumptions.
- How Returns Change Ecommerce Contribution
Separate return frequency from revenue loss, recoverable value, fee reversals, refund timing and reverse-logistics cost.
Read guide
Frequently asked questions
How do I test period contribution after returns and recovery assumptions?
Prioritise the product, fulfilment or policy change that can reduce the largest avoidable loss per return.
How is a returned order valued?
Revenue refunded and reverse-logistics cost are offset by your recoverable product cost and fee reversal assumptions.
Is the break-even return rate a benchmark?
No. It is calculated only from the order economics you enter.
Does this replace the order profitability planner?
No. This planner owns period-level return scenarios and can feed expected return loss back to the order model.
Which planning assumptions should I stress-test?
Compare a plausible alternative scenario and verify the decision-critical assumption that changes the plan most.