Act on the result
Compare expected net value with capacity displacement and the strategic reason for pursuing the work.
Educational only: Business decision support, not accounting, tax or legal advice.
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Update policy: Reviewed when formulas or official dependencies change.
Scope: Market-neutral small-business planning using your own assumptions.
What this planner helps you decide
Best for
Project businesses deciding whether the economics justify pursuing a specific bid.
Outputs
Expected contribution, pursuit cost, capacity displacement and expected net value.
Start here
Enter bid value, delivery cost, win probability, pursuit cost and displaced work from the same opportunity.
Use a different tool when: Do not use this to find completion, billing or contribution threshold for a project; use Project Break-even Planner for that decision. Use this tool to compare bid cost, win probability, capacity and expected contribution.
Quote & capacity
Bid / No-bid Economics: expected contribution
Expected contribution, pursuit cost, capacity displacement and expected net value.
Amounts use the same currency as your inputs. No currency conversion is performed.
Bid / No-bid Economics
Compare contract contribution, bid preparation cost, capacity opportunity cost and a user-entered win probability before deciding whether a bid clears its economic threshold.
Your numbers stay in this browser
Enter the ex-tax price payable if the bid is won. Use one consistent ex-tax basis.
Enter the project cost caused by delivering the work if won. Use one consistent ex-tax basis.
Enter the cost incurred to prepare and submit the bid whether it wins or loses. Use one consistent ex-tax basis.
Enter contribution displaced by reserving capacity for this contract. Use one consistent ex-tax basis.
Enter a scenario probability based on your own bid assessment; it is not a forecast.
Decision result
Use the cost and recovery rows to identify the component changing the exact reconciliation.
PDF and CSV exports stay on this device. Clean page links contain no inputs.
- Contribution if won
- 6,000.00
- Expected bid value
- 500.00
- Break-even win probability
- 16.7%
- Clears economic threshold
- Yes
Scenario comparison
Each row names the assumption axis changed from the baseline.
ScenarioResultDifference
Entered scenario500.00Baseline
Lower Win probability350.00-150.00
Higher Win probability650.00150.00
Save these results, change an input, then compare the updated figures with this baseline.
The baseline is temporary in this tab and is not added to shared scenario links or generated reports.
Calculation details
View calculation detailsView the formulas and inputs used for these results.
Contribution if won
Contribution if won
contract price − delivery cost − capacity opportunity cost6,000.00Result6,000.00
Uses only the entered market-neutral commercial records and assumptions. Raw engine precision is retained until display.
Bid / No-bid Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Contribution if wonContract Price Ex Tax
- 20,000
- Contribution if wonDelivery Cost Ex Tax
- 12,000
- Contribution if wonBid Preparation Cost Ex Tax
- 1,000
- Contribution if wonCapacity Opportunity Cost Ex Tax
- 2,000
- Contribution if wonWin Probability
- 0.25
Expected bid value
Expected bid value
win probability × contribution if won − bid preparation cost500.00Result500.00
Uses only the entered market-neutral commercial records and assumptions. Raw engine precision is retained until display.
Bid / No-bid Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Expected bid valueContract Price Ex Tax
- 20,000
- Expected bid valueDelivery Cost Ex Tax
- 12,000
- Expected bid valueBid Preparation Cost Ex Tax
- 1,000
- Expected bid valueCapacity Opportunity Cost Ex Tax
- 2,000
- Expected bid valueWin Probability
- 0.25
Break-even win probability
Break-even win probability
bid preparation cost ÷ contribution if won when contribution is positive0.17 percentResult16.7%
Uses only the entered market-neutral commercial records and assumptions. Raw engine precision is retained until display.
Bid / No-bid Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Break-even win probabilityContract Price Ex Tax
- 20,000
- Break-even win probabilityDelivery Cost Ex Tax
- 12,000
- Break-even win probabilityBid Preparation Cost Ex Tax
- 1,000
- Break-even win probabilityCapacity Opportunity Cost Ex Tax
- 2,000
- Break-even win probabilityWin Probability
- 0.25
Clears economic threshold
Clears economic threshold
expected bid value is zero or positivetrue booleanResultYes
Uses only the entered market-neutral commercial records and assumptions. Raw engine precision is retained until display.
Bid / No-bid Economics Planner formulas →Inputs used by these formula steps
- Clears economic thresholdContract Price Ex Tax
- 20,000
- Clears economic thresholdDelivery Cost Ex Tax
- 12,000
- Clears economic thresholdBid Preparation Cost Ex Tax
- 1,000
- Clears economic thresholdCapacity Opportunity Cost Ex Tax
- 2,000
- Clears economic thresholdWin Probability
- 0.25
Inputs used
- Contract price
- 20,000
- Delivery cost
- 12,000
- Bid preparation cost
- 1,000
- Capacity opportunity cost
- 2,000
- Win probability
- 0.25
Open this calculator with preset values
This calculator supports documented, shareable scenario URLs. Compatible assistants and applications can construct links using the parameters below.
Scenario links contain only allowlisted numeric and closed-choice inputs shown in the URL; Margin101 excludes free text and identifying fields. Anyone you share the URL with can read those numbers, so do not include private or identifying data.
| Parameter | Meaning | Unit | Allowed values | Presence | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bidPreparationCostExTax | Enter the cost incurred to prepare and submit the bid whether it wins or loses. Use one consistent ex-tax basis. | currency units/bid submission, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 1000 |
| capacityOpportunityCostExTax | Enter contribution displaced by reserving capacity for this contract. Use one consistent ex-tax basis. | currency units/bid opportunity, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 2000 |
| contractPriceExTax | Enter the ex-tax price payable if the bid is won. Use one consistent ex-tax basis. | currency units/won bid, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 20000 |
| deliveryCostExTax | Enter the project cost caused by delivering the work if won. Use one consistent ex-tax basis. | currency units/won bid, ex tax | 0 to 10000000 | Required | 12000 |
| winProbability | Enter a scenario probability based on your own bid assessment; it is not a forecast. | decimal probability of the submitted bid winning | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.25 |
Bid / No-bid Economics: expected contribution
Expected value combines probability and economics but does not predict whether the bid will be won.
Formula summary
- Primary formula
- win probability × contribution if won − bid preparation cost.
Data used here
- The estimate uses your inputs and the general business formula documented in the methodology.
Decision checks
Stress-test the decision
Retest a lower win probability, higher delivery cost and more displaced contribution.
When this estimate can be misleading
- Use one consistent ex-tax commercial basis.
- Hours, utilisation, costs, rates and recovery targets are user inputs rather than defaults.
- This is educational business decision support, not accounting, tax, legal or financial advice.
- Expected value combines probability and economics but does not predict whether the bid will be won.
Educational estimate, not advice. See all assumptions & limitations →
Related reading
Guides to interpret the decision and its assumptions.
- How to Decide Whether to Bid on a Low-Margin Job
Separate job contribution from capacity, cash timing, strategic value and downside risk before deciding whether to bid.
Read guide
Frequently asked questions
How do I compare bid cost, win probability, capacity and expected contribution?
Compare expected net value with capacity displacement and the strategic reason for pursuing the work.
Which planning assumptions should I stress-test?
Compare a plausible alternative scenario and verify the decision-critical assumption that changes the plan most.